Showing posts with label depression. Show all posts
Showing posts with label depression. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

The Dependent and the Independent



Predicting the future is at best an educated guess.  The one trend that can be reasonably reliable, absent some significant external shock, is that of age demographics.

In the year 2050, experts predict more than 80 million Americans will be over the age of 65, or double current levels. In the same timeframe, the number of “working age” Americans – those between 18 and 64 – will rise just 17%.

In other words, the problem we have today of too few workers trying to support too many retirees is going to get worse – much worse – in the decades ahead.

This, of course, is not a problem only in the United States, but throughout the west and even much of the rest of the world.  When I think about the ultimate victory of the laws of economics, it is to this issue that I lean.

However, the problem is much more significant than that of “working age” vs. those “over the age of 65.”

How many of working age are on some form of government support?  How many of working age are employed by the government?  How many of working age are employed in industries (such as banking or military contractors) that exist in their current form only due to government support?  How many are in the 1% solely due to personal and corporate proximity to the Fed and the Treasury?

In other words, how many of working age are working in areas that are not valued by the market – either in whole or to a large degree?  And more important, are these numbers growing or shrinking relative to the past?

These are the dependent.  It isn’t just retirees that must be supported.  In every way they are being supported by the independent – those who produce goods and services that are valued in a relatively free market in quantities supported by a relatively free market.

There are only two solutions to this (and one of these two isn’t much of a solution for the independent):

One possibility is a step function increase in productivity unlike any seen in the industrial age or the communication boom.  Of course, this “solution” will not bring much solace to the independent.  Any such gains will be siphoned off to the dependent – both at the top and the bottom of the income scale; both to the 1% in near proximity to the Fed and Treasury and to the stereotypical welfare mom. 

This is precisely what has happened in the last 30 years. In the midst of the greatest boon in technological progress since the industrial revolution, the standard of living for the average worker has remained more or less stagnant.  Almost all of the gains have been siphoned off by the 1% closest to the seats of power; the crumbs have been tossed to the lower half in order to keep things calm.  (The middle class gets crumbs as well; believing these are valuable without counting the cost of stagnation.)

So a new, step-function improvement in technology might help relieve the situation, but it won’t help the large majority much, if at all.

The second possibility is default – and default in many forms.  Most importantly will be default on promises: retirement benefits, medical benefits, etc.  This will include private retirement and medical plans – after all, these can only earn real returns by leaning on the (shrinking number of) dependent.

There will be default through a continued and ongoing push at inflation, in hopes of further chipping away at the problem.

There will also be real, no kidding defaults.  Debts will be written off and restructured.

My guess is that the second possibility will prevail.  After this, any gains in productivity due to whatever is the next technological boom will accrue somewhat more to the independent, productive class.

Sunday, September 16, 2012

David Morgan at The Daily Bell



This is an interesting interview.  I found one comment especially noteworthy:

Daily Bell: Are we headed to a worldwide depression?

David Morgan: We are moving toward an inflationary depression where money promises are largely maintained yet people become poorer and poorer. Even the "rich" suffer at some point because the quality of life is not money dependent − it is integrity dependent.

The bolded section (my emphasis) is worth reflection.  The entire interview is worth reading.  This one sentence is worth the price of admission.

Saturday, December 25, 2010

re The Rise of Brownianism at The Daily Bell

This is in response to comments to the article at The Daily Bell:

http://www.thedailybell.com/1630/Anthony-Wile-The-Rise-of-Brownianism.html



@Carl Herman (LA County Nonpartisan Examiner), a college-level econ teacher

I find when someone must advertise his credentials as part of his argument (and you have done so twice so far), that I should prepare myself for ignorant and naïve commentary to follow. In this, you have not disappointed.

What a sad commentary. Not only from you, but the other supporters of this so-called improvement to the monetary system.

Before I go further, to be clear: I am for a free banking, fully competitive monetary environment. As in other markets that are free, or relatively so, goods are delivered that meet customers’ needs and wants, with ever increasing quality and (absent inflation in the money supply) ever shrinking cost. I believe the current system of a Fed controlled money supply is a sham and a fraud.

I do not support change for change sake. Even if I thought this Brownian idea was a marginal improvement, I would not support it, because at its core it is still corrupt, and delivers the control of money to the same corrupt group that has it today, only with a different plaque on the building.

However, it is not even an improvement. It is a further degradation of the current system. To give such power to the Congress and the Treasury, and believe that there will be somehow discipline involved, speaks wonders of the belief system of the proponents. At least in the current setup, we have different bureaucracies potentially fighting with each other.

Now to some of your commentary:

"Like any accounting system, it REQUIRES TRANSPARENCY AND FULL ACCOUNTABILITY OR ELSE WE WILL HAVE FRAUD TO THE DEGREE IT IS UNACCOUNTABLE."

Correct. How do you believe this proposal would accomplish this? The Federal government will give us transparency and accountability? Please describe where and how this could be reasonably expected. Hundreds of examples tell us the opposite. I cannot think of one example that would suggest government is transparent. But you believe it will somehow be so this time. This is ignorant at best, or the characteristics of someone purposely wanting to further destroy the economy.

I took a quick look at your web site. You seem quite skeptical about government power. Why are you such a proponent of it in this case?

In the market I can exercise my judgment and ensure accountability every day. I can stop interacting with any business I choose. I can stop using certain products in favor of an alternative. I can withhold my vote whenever I like. Nice characteristics to have when it comes to money.

Tell me how I can do this with government?

"It must have political integrity, yes, so that is the paradox that trips-up many apparent critics."

Well, it is one issue that trips up this critic. Could you please provide examples of political integrity in government that would give you confidence in this occasion?

The other issue is that it is money controlled by dictate. To believe that the power over money, the most BASIC building block over the economy and therefore over the control of man, will be exercised benignly is THE single most ignorant belief I can imagine anyone holding. Control money and you control everything. Please grasp this most basic of economic ideas…oh wait, that is your line.

"Not to be too impish, but, again with all respect: duh. Please grasp this most basic of economics ideas of who creates money and how. Please."

Money is properly created by the market, as are all goods worthy of being created. This is the most basic concept. It has been so in the past, it will one day again be so. Passage of this Kucinich bill will bring that day that much sooner because it will destroy the dollar that much sooner.

"...And no, the arrogance is to think we can't regulate money supply. Really, what an insult!"

You must be joking. Government hasn’t regulated the deficit. Government hasn’t regulated balancing the budget. Government hasn’t regulated anything that requires hard decisions or choices. Name one. Please identify instances where government regulation has worked. For any one you come up with, I am sure I have a dozen failures. Just look at the last decade in finance and real estate – two of the most regulated industries in the country. Really, what an insult!

"No debt and interest cost ever….This means full employment and state-of-the-art infrastructure."

Manna from heaven. Do you have a statue to this false god in your office? If we just change the owner of the printing press, all economic woes will disappear. We can eliminate need from the vocabulary of man. Really, you believe this?

"Really now; is that your faith in "Hand , the invisible," our Lord and Market God?"

What you refer to despicably as the market, I refer to as people’s individual choices, freely arrived at. The market delivers wonderful things every day. The market delivers items far more complex than “money,” a relatively simple commodity that you, like others who want to enslave man, have turned into something complex for purposes other than enabling division of labor and a store of value. I know the reason government actors, and those above them pulling the strings of government actors, have for monopolizing money. What are your reasons?

You despise markets, because you despise people. That is obvious from your posts.

If you want to impress somebody with your credentials, don’t start by saying you are an economics professor. In this world, that would place you in a group where 98% are basically idiots.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Re: New Elite Gambit Features 'Transparency?' at The Daily Bell

This is in reply to the article at The Daily Bell:

http://www.thedailybell.com/1627/New-Elite-Gambit-Features-Transparency.html


"Perhaps some fairly well known names might eventually face jail..."

This has been my view for some time (assuming we refer to the same thing). The politicians will perp walk many of the bankers, etc., in order to deflect attention and culpability from themselves as the economy continues to crumble. This would also serve the interests of the puppet masters (both to deflect attention, and perhaps as an aide to consolidating further the centralization). The idea of transparency fits right in with this strategy.

In this way, I see Ron Paul's Chairmanship as fitting in with the plan (regular readers should know a) I DO NOT believe Ron Paul is an insider or playing a role, and b) I am quite happy he is in the chair he is in). While his new found position may be playing into this transparency meme, I still feel it is valuable to the efforts of freedom because it offers the chance to educate. This is where the battle lies, and battles are not riskless. His seat in this chair can cut both ways (just as many fear the internet has positive and negative ramifications to freedom). But I digress.

There is apparently a bill that Kucinich will offer. The link is from a commentary by Shedlock, calling the bill (rightly) crazy, and wondering why Denninger is supporting such a crazy bill:

http://www.businessinsider.com/dennis-kucinich-end-the-fed-2010-12


I have earlier commented on this bill myself:

http://bionicmosquito.blogspot.com/2010/12/denninger-dennis-kucinich-delete-fed.html

In short, the bill would take the money function away from the Fed and give it to Treasury and Congress. Ellen Brown on steroids.

Why do I introduce this here? Some background:

1) I think TPTB understand full well the risks of central banking and FRB.
2) Knowing the risks, they know how to exploit the system to their advantage.
3) Knowing the risks, they knew that the end would come sooner or later.
4) They may or may not have known the magnitude of the drastic calamity that in fact now seems to have arrived. In other words, they knew it would be bad. They may or may not have wanted it to be this bad.
5) Now that it is this bad (whether by design or not), they must make lemonade out of lemons. Use this as an opportunity to further centralize. One world currency being one of the key, if not THE key, objectives.
6) But the world isn't ready yet. Delay and stall, keep the economy crutched, not allowing markets to clear therefore not allowing the economy to recover and grow.
7) This helps drive home the point to the masses that times are desperate.

What does this have to do with the Kucinich Bill? The one system more certain to ruin a currency than a central bank system is one where money is controlled by publicly elected politicians. If the intent is to ruin the currency in order to motivate the public to accept a one world currency, this bill will gain traction. As the rest of the world uses USD as the reserve currency, ruin the dollar and you drastically diminish the worth of any other currency (what is the value of a currency that has as its reserves the worthless USD?). Also, for the bill to gain traction, we need a few big economic shocks as we had at the end of 2008.

This bill may be the replacement for the failure of the global warming sales pitch, itself a scam to bring to fruition world-wide money in the form of carbon credits. An audible hastily called on the line of scrimmage to try to replace that which was lost after decades of preparation. Again, another reason for the extend and pretend we are seeing today.

To Dr. North’s point in his critique of Brown: A false flag infiltrator, meant to gain the conservative’s support. “Yes, end the Fed. I heard that somewhere. This bill will do just that. It must be good. Certainly Ron Paul should support it, that's what Denninger said.” As witnessed by Denninger, this bill should gain a relatively large base of supporters from the ignorant.

This will be interesting. If we see some big economic shocks in the coming year (certainly quite likely) this will make it almost certain that a) we will see perp walks for some of the bankers (Congress will do whatever necessary to deflect blame), and b) this Kucinich bill will gain traction (“we must take this power away from this cartel and return it to the control of government where it – falsely - Constitutionally belongs”).

My one hesitation is that it is still all too fast. Can the public’s mindset be brought around so quickly? Even with the decades of indoctrination this seems like a big step. This suggests one of three possibilities: 1) TPTB are quite desperate (as TDB has often suggested), 2) the crash that is in store for us will be massive (got your beans and bullets?).

The third possibility…my tin foil hat is much too tight today!

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

re: Failure of Economic Happy Talk

This is in reply to an article at today's Daily Bell. The original article can be found here:

http://www.thedailybell.com/1615/Failure-of-Economic-Happy-Talk.html

"...but the change in the global social structure has created a psychological crisis in the US."

I don't believe Americans are having a psychological crisis because the Chinese or Indians are catching up. Few Americans have ever even seen anything of these countries, and for those who haven't, most likely continue to be blinded by the arrogance of the now certainly false American exceptionalism. No, most Americans are either a) not aware enough of the world around them, or b) believe the US is so far ahead of the unwashed third world to say the psychological crisis is caused by this reality of the world catching up.

Certainly, for the source of any psychological crisis one need look no further than home, both in today’s stories and those passed down by parents and grandparents. Such a national psychosis is not born in one’s own head, but is consciously and subconsciously passed along and increased from one generation to the next. For many, the dots are not consciously connected, yet certainly they must somehow be related…to the extent one is even aware of the history.

The Constitution. A wonderful document. Yet in it was enshrined the idea of slavery. Well, it was the best we could do, many said. But was it? Why did anything need to be "done"? And to enshrine this sickness so quickly after "We hold these truths to be self evident..."

The war of 1861. Lincoln saved the republic. Or did he? There are certainly many from that generation who believed otherwise: both in the north and in the south. These were the children of the founding generation. They understood freedom. They understood checks and balances. Many were not so easily fooled. Of course, in the aftermath, all that was left was to go along and get along. But this knowledge – a very conscious knowledge – did not leave them. One way or another, they passed this on to their children.

The terrible year of 1913: the income tax, direct election of senators, and the Federal Reserve all hoisted on the people in one fell swoop and all in a less than transparent manner. What harm, under the surface, might these have caused to a people who still understood “real” money and the freedom from paying homage to the national government? What about the nagging feeling that the control was now more permanently moved from the local state to the national government, especially to those somehow aware of the true implications of Lincoln’s war? These events were immediately followed by the Great War. For some reason perhaps not quite understood by the masses, the US got involved, despite a population at that time quite firmly against such foreign entanglements. Was this somehow connected to the events of 1913? Somewhere, if only in the subconscious, many must have struggled with this question. These people were the same people who only a short time before lived in a reasonably uncontrolled society. To them, perhaps the full picture was not clear, but certainly something inside was beginning to nag them.

Within a generation, the suffering of the Great Depression. But the ‘20s were roaring. How could this happen? A decade of financial calamity. Still not resolved, they find themselves maneuvered into fighting a war that, prior to the day that will live in infamy, few wanted to fight. This war, always called “the good war,” resulted in the deaths of millions and contributed to the subjugation of hundreds of millions behind an iron curtain. Somewhere, in the minds of anyone with a pulse, nagged the question: Is Hitler really worse than Stalin? Especially when, almost immediately after the war it was “decided” that Stalin’s empire was the new enemy. This could not be conciously resolved.

After the war, seeming calm for a time. However, in order to mask the underlying decay brought on by events earlier in the century, a new enemy was created. A Cold enemy. Wars, some larger, some smaller were fought indirectly in places few heard of. The Great Society was born, a race to the moon for further diversion. The gold standard, no longer maintainable, was ushered off in a summer day in 1971 – the second major default since the advent of the Fed. But, this only unleashed the economic calamity, culminating in a decade of high inflation and high unemployment, only resolved (on the surface at least) by high double digit interest rates and two additional significant recessions. Again, the dots were not connected consciously by most, but the mind is a wonderful instrument, able to subconsciously understand and integrate what the conscious does not.

The ‘80s. Reagan. Happy, upbeat, defeat the commies. Stock markets only go up. Bond markets only go up. Real estate only goes up…well except for a nasty little downturn in the early ‘90s. But look at how quickly that was “fixed.” Debt crisis in Mexico. Debt crisis in Asia. Wait, why is the US Fed involved in these? Well, never mind: we have dotcoms, we will all retire as millionaires. But perhaps questions lingered deep down inside. Then, another blowup in 2000. The market crashed.

September 11. Somehow the story doesn’t quite make sense. Some are quite aware and make a point to say so. Qualified engineers, for example, state that buildings cannot collapse like this. Other point out a collapsed third building that was not hit by anything. Where are the airplane remains? But for most, the policy is: Don’t ask, don’t tell. This may pacify the conscious mind, but the subconscious is not so easily fooled. The diversion comes: here comes a real estate boom to save the day. And we can all buy new cars and flat screens every year. There is no calamity too large for this wonderful machine. Happy days, but is the mind fully content? How can it be? Too many unresolved traumas passed along from one generation to the next.

2008, the economic charade is fully exposed. No happy retirement, no social security, no Medicare, no 401K. Heck, no jobs. But they do see theft. From the Fed to Wall Street. From the government to the cronies. They conclude there is little to be done about it and how hopeless they truly are, or they don’t want to admit the true ramifications behind the facts of the cronyism…at least not consciously. Somewhere deep down inside, they know the system does not work for them; it is designed to use them for the benefit of others. They know that what they have been taught over a lifetime is false, but who can easily admit that the lessons of a lifetime were, in fact, some sort of brainwashing? But subconsciously they know it is over, the lessons past along subconciously from one generation to the next tell them this is so. The only question is when, and exactly how.

They know, deep down inside, that they are staring a kind of death in the face, without knowing anything of the means or the timing. Only knowing, somewhere deep down inside, that the one they trusted to be their friend and to take care of them, is the one who lied to them all along and has brought on all this pain.

They have known this through several generations, going back to their grandparents in the time before 1913, perhaps even before 1861 or 1789. Such psychological trauma does not spring forth in one generation: it takes several generations of abuse. Whether or not parents know it, they pass this on to their children, and on it goes generation after generation.

The US does not have to look outside for the source of its psychological crisis. It was homegrown, over generations, with the lessons subconsciously passed from one generation to the next.