Catastrophe or Chaos…

 

…or both.

Roger Mitchell has written a post, The Warlord of my Dreams.  I want to focus on one aspect of this.  He notes that many look to the fall of Rome for a comparison to the current situation of the US Empire.  He believes looking at Tsarist Russia before the Bolshevik Revolution is a more appropriate analogy.  He offers several characteristics of the situation in Russia that can be compared to the situation with the US today.  I offer several of these that ring especially true for me in our current situation:

·         A tone-deaf elite which held virtually all the wealth of the country and which held the common people in contempt.

·         Huge philosophical and political differences among the populace.

·         A large number of factions at grassroots level who were willing to battle with each other at a moment’s notice.

·         Inability of the State to maintain control and order.

I think it is pretty straightforward to find history, if not repeating, at least rhyming, with these points.

Yet the one I wish to focus on is the following:

·         A vivid memory of a major military defeat in 1905 vs. Japan.

Following is an expanded version of my comment at the post; I am not going to attempt to delineate what was original vs. what has been added:

Roger, the comparison to Tsarist Russia is very good. I think the point of losing the war against Japan may line up very nicely with what is happening in Iran today. 

Would Russia have lost if they had nuclear weapons and Japan didn’t? In this case, would Russia have humbly slithered back home, or used nukes? A thought experiment worth considering in our current circumstance.  Iran is fighting a war against two countries with nuclear weapons.  Can we believe at least one of these two is not crazy enough to use their nukes in order to get what they want?

The choice facing the United States today: destroy the world economy, or slither back home.  If the choice is to destroy the world economy, the US would lose, but the rest of the world will lose much more. So, relatively speaking, yay for our team (sarcastically); we come out of the catastrophe still on top (like at the end of World War Two).  Assuming we come out of it at all.

To explain my fundamental understanding of the geopolitical world: as I have written often, it is based on the ideas of Halford Mackinder.  Whoever controls the World Island will be the primary power in the world.  The world island is basically Russia, western and central China, and Central Asia – eastern Europe would be a nice-to-have, but not necessary.  We see this World Island coming together via mechanisms such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.  We see it in China’s Belt and Road Initiatives. 

Now, I see no way for the United States Empire to control this World Island.  The objective for the Empire, then, is to cause chaos in it and around it.  Sure, it would be great if Iran had a puppet government doing whatever the US wanted, but it isn’t necessary.  Just turn Iran into a hell-hole, cause chaos; this will be enough to reduce the possibilities of developing the World Island.

You will note: I am not saying that the US is doing this for Israel.  The US didn’t need Israel to fight in Korea, Vietnam, or Afghanistan (countries useful for their proximity to the World Island); it didn’t need Israel to expand NATO to Russia’s borders; it didn’t need Israel to ring China with bases throughout the Far East and Southeast Asia; it didn’t need Israel to destroy the economy of Germany or Germany’s economic relationship with Russia (which would have been beneficial to both Germany and the World Island); it didn’t need Israel to poke the Russian bear via Ukraine.

There are ongoing conflicts of various degrees of heat in Myanmar, Kashmir, Pakistan, India, the Philippines, or Bangladesh – none of these anywhere close to Israel and all of these in proximity of the World Island.  In these cases, I am not claiming an overt or even covert US involvement (although with hundreds of military bases and countless CIA assets around the world, well…), yet these serve the purposes of disrupting the advancement of the World Island.

The US would love for Japan or South Korea to be as rabid in the Far East as Israel is in the Middle East.  It would be of great benefit to the Empire.  But with or without, Empire rolls on.  The objectives for the Empire are clear: if I can’t have you, no one will; if I can’t control you, I will ensure you are uncontrollable.  In other words, the World Island cannot be allowed to develop. 

Simple enough.

Conclusion

I see no offramp in Iran – yes, maybe in the short-term, but not in the medium term.  And sooner or later, nuclear weapons are most likely involved here.  Whether it’s the US or Israel is irrelevant. 

It is interesting to me how calm I remain in this circumstance. When I truly can do nothing about the geopolitical situation, all I have is Christ. Yes, that’s all I always have, but there is something about my total impotence in the face of this current evil that in a way brings me calm and peace.

My Friend Hans

 

Hoppe Removed as Mises Institute Senior Distinguished Fellow

In response to “Mises Institute: Quo Vadis?,” Property and Freedom Journal (March 25, 2026), Professor Hoppe has been removed as a Distinguished Senior Fellow (~2000–2026) with the Ludwig von Mises Institute…

I will not attempt to summarize Hoppe’s above-referenced post regarding where the Mises Institute is going.  If you have cared about, or still care about, the Institute, then it is worth a read.  I myself had a long association with the Institute until a few years ago.  My relationship with the Institute was of great benefit, but it became time for me to move on.

In any case, my main purpose in writing this is regarding Hans.  As long-time readers know, I am a big fan of Hans; when it comes to aligning on economic issues or political liberty, I have yet to find a point of disagreement with him, and I have learned immensely from his work.

You will find here several posts I have written about Hans, but my favorite might be “I Love Hans Hoppe!” – well, at least for the title. 

Hans Hoppe is one of the kindest people with whom I became acquainted at the Institute.  The first time I met him, and him knowing nothing about me, he took time to talk with me and understand something about me.  He is also, of course, the most consistent Rothbardian scholar in the world.

He is and always has been a gentleman in all of my interactions with him, and I value all of the time we have had together.  It is unfortunate to see this development in his relationship with the Institute, however I know whatever happens, Hans will be respected and admired by all those who value, liberty, peace, and free markets.  Hans needs no titles for this to remain true.

Is There an Offramp?

 

Before I come to that…

It is clear by now that if this war continues for a time (I hate to be specific as to length of time, because that will be reason to dismiss), Israel, or the United States on behalf of Israel, will send nuclear bombs to Iran.  I have come to the view that this is almost inevitable, unless the United States devises an offramp that could preclude this.  I will come to this possible offramp at the end.

In the meantime… if one wanted to destroy this conservative-leaning populist movement, how to do it?  Well, in 2017, they tried to derail it via Russia-gate, impeachment trials, election shenanigans, etc.  Clearly it didn’t work, as in 2025, the (so-called) champion of that movement found his way back in office. 

So, how to derail it?  Give the people what they want: Trump.  He is imbalanced enough to tear MAGA apart (and isn’t that happening?).  Who wants to vote republican in 2026, and even if you do will anything change?  JD Vance, the heir apparent?  He may have a chance if Trump is impeached and out of office, but almost certainly not no matter what.

Knowing Trump is imbalanced (and who knows how compromised), give the people what they want and let Trump do the rest.  Don’t block anything, don’t vote against anything, don’t deny anything.  Just clear the road, and let Trump do the rest. 

Now, for the offramp.  Park three nuclear-weapon equipped submarines off the coast of Tel Aviv.  Tell Netanyahu to stand down, else they launch and turn Israel into glass.  Tell Tehran that this is what will happen, but they are free to keep firing until they see that Israel has stood down.

If Isreal doesn’t stand down, fire.  If Israel launches a ballistic missile that is capable of carrying a nuclear payload, fire – everything, the entire payload. 

I hate this answer.  But I see no other offramp.  I see no reason that Iran will stop, as they know that they will be destroyed unless they bring an end to the madness of Israel and the United States. 

This war is certainly the endgame for the state of Israel.  They know that their time is running out.  If the United States just walks away from the conflict, Israel will fire nukes.  If the United States stays in but the conflict drags on, Israel will fire nukes.  Either way, I think Israel fires nukes. Once they do that, Iran will quickly develop the capability to turn their enriched uranium into a projectile (hat-tip Ted Postel), then boom.

After this, who knows what happens.  As I mentioned in my last post, we may be getting our Armageddon and rapture, but the Christians that will be raptured won’t be the Scofield-reference-bible-believing kind.

Or, maybe, the sadistic murderers will suddenly become rational.  I guess that could happen. I would be thrilled to be wrong.