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Which way are you going, MAGA?
Trump is the most confusing president in my lifetime (just see my last post, and compare it to several of my earlier posts). Some people see him playing 4-D chess or call it his negotiation strategy, others just see it for chaos. He regularly says things the opposite of each other and regularly does things at least seemingly the opposite of each other or opposite of something he just said three minutes before. I won’t rehash these here, I think the evidence is clear enough.
I have been thinking through how I might best understand what is going on. At times like this, I think it is best to go back to some fundamentals; call these the lenses through which I see the political world.
There are two fundamental lenses through which I see the geopolitical landscape. Now, I often forget these, and when this happens, I find myself swaying because of allowing myself to be unrooted. Having said this, I am not completely married to these two lenses – these may not play at all. However, until I see actions clearly in contradiction to the lenses…well, the lenses stand for me.
So, what are these lenses?
The Geographical Pivot of History
Also known as the Heartland Theory. Halford Mackinder gave a talk in 1904 to the Royal Geographic Society in London. A picture is worth a thousand words, so let’s start with a picture.
To summarize his thesis: whoever controls the Pivot Area controls the world. Britain at that time, and the United States certainly since World War Two, have controlled the seas – the Lands of the Outer Crescent. But this will be irrelevant to whoever brings under control and tames the Pivot Area.
I ask you, therefore, for a moment to look upon Europe and European history as subordinate to Asia and Asiatic history, for European civilization is, in a very real sense, the outcome of the secular struggle against Asiatic invasion.
For a thousand years, Europe dealt with hoards coming from Central Asia – the Pivot Area, or Heartland.
To the east, south, and west of this heart-land are marginal regions, ranged in a vast crescent, accessible to shipmen.
The margins, or Inner Crescent, are key. A buffer for the Pivot Area and a source of chaos for the Outer Crescent to use against the Pivot Area. And, guess what?
Mackinder identifies the key players of his time. Little has changed:
Outside the pivot area, in a great inner crescent, are Germany, Austria, Turkey, India, and China, and in an outer crescent, Britain, South Africa, Australia, the United States, Canada, and Japan.
I would only comment that western China is certainly in the Pivot Area, making China a key Pivot Area player. Otherwise, take a look at the list: the Outer Area was at the time all allies of Britain (with South Africa more recently becoming iffy). Those in the Great Inner Crescent are seen as where the game is to be played.
