Catastrophe or Chaos…

 

…or both.

Roger Mitchell has written a post, The Warlord of my Dreams.  I want to focus on one aspect of this.  He notes that many look to the fall of Rome for a comparison to the current situation of the US Empire.  He believes looking at Tsarist Russia before the Bolshevik Revolution is a more appropriate analogy.  He offers several characteristics of the situation in Russia that can be compared to the situation with the US today.  I offer several of these that ring especially true for me in our current situation:

·         A tone-deaf elite which held virtually all the wealth of the country and which held the common people in contempt.

·         Huge philosophical and political differences among the populace.

·         A large number of factions at grassroots level who were willing to battle with each other at a moment’s notice.

·         Inability of the State to maintain control and order.

I think it is pretty straightforward to find history, if not repeating, at least rhyming, with these points.

Yet the one I wish to focus on is the following:

·         A vivid memory of a major military defeat in 1905 vs. Japan.

Following is an expanded version of my comment at the post; I am not going to attempt to delineate what was original vs. what has been added:

Roger, the comparison to Tsarist Russia is very good. I think the point of losing the war against Japan may line up very nicely with what is happening in Iran today. 

Would Russia have lost if they had nuclear weapons and Japan didn’t? In this case, would Russia have humbly slithered back home, or used nukes? A thought experiment worth considering in our current circumstance.  Iran is fighting a war against two countries with nuclear weapons.  Can we believe at least one of these two is not crazy enough to use their nukes in order to get what they want?

The choice facing the United States today: destroy the world economy, or slither back home.  If the choice is to destroy the world economy, the US would lose, but the rest of the world will lose much more. So, relatively speaking, yay for our team (sarcastically); we come out of the catastrophe still on top (like at the end of World War Two).  Assuming we come out of it at all.

To explain my fundamental understanding of the geopolitical world: as I have written often, it is based on the ideas of Halford Mackinder.  Whoever controls the World Island will be the primary power in the world.  The world island is basically Russia, western and central China, and Central Asia – eastern Europe would be a nice-to-have, but not necessary.  We see this World Island coming together via mechanisms such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.  We see it in China’s Belt and Road Initiatives. 

Now, I see no way for the United States Empire to control this World Island.  The objective for the Empire, then, is to cause chaos in it and around it.  Sure, it would be great if Iran had a puppet government doing whatever the US wanted, but it isn’t necessary.  Just turn Iran into a hell-hole, cause chaos; this will be enough to reduce the possibilities of developing the World Island.

You will note: I am not saying that the US is doing this for Israel.  The US didn’t need Israel to fight in Korea, Vietnam, or Afghanistan (countries useful for their proximity to the World Island); it didn’t need Israel to expand NATO to Russia’s borders; it didn’t need Israel to ring China with bases throughout the Far East and Southeast Asia; it didn’t need Israel to destroy the economy of Germany or Germany’s economic relationship with Russia (which would have been beneficial to both Germany and the World Island); it didn’t need Israel to poke the Russian bear via Ukraine.

There are ongoing conflicts of various degrees of heat in Myanmar, Kashmir, Pakistan, India, the Philippines, or Bangladesh – none of these anywhere close to Israel and all of these in proximity of the World Island.  In these cases, I am not claiming an overt or even covert US involvement (although with hundreds of military bases and countless CIA assets around the world, well…), yet these serve the purposes of disrupting the advancement of the World Island.

The US would love for Japan or South Korea to be as rabid in the Far East as Israel is in the Middle East.  It would be of great benefit to the Empire.  But with or without, Empire rolls on.  The objectives for the Empire are clear: if I can’t have you, no one will; if I can’t control you, I will ensure you are uncontrollable.  In other words, the World Island cannot be allowed to develop. 

Simple enough.

Conclusion

I see no offramp in Iran – yes, maybe in the short-term, but not in the medium term.  And sooner or later, nuclear weapons are most likely involved here.  Whether it’s the US or Israel is irrelevant. 

It is interesting to me how calm I remain in this circumstance. When I truly can do nothing about the geopolitical situation, all I have is Christ. Yes, that’s all I always have, but there is something about my total impotence in the face of this current evil that in a way brings me calm and peace.