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Before I come to that…
It is clear by now that if this war continues for a time (I hate to be specific as to length of time, because that will be reason to dismiss), Israel, or the United States on behalf of Israel, will send nuclear bombs to Iran. I have come to the view that this is almost inevitable, unless the United States devises an offramp that could preclude this. I will come to this possible offramp at the end.
In the meantime… if one wanted to destroy this conservative-leaning populist movement, how to do it? Well, in 2017, they tried to derail it via Russia-gate, impeachment trials, election shenanigans, etc. Clearly it didn’t work, as in 2025, the (so-called) champion of that movement found his way back in office.
So, how to derail it? Give the people what they want: Trump. He is imbalanced enough to tear MAGA apart (and isn’t that happening?). Who wants to vote republican in 2026, and even if you do will anything change? JD Vance, the heir apparent? He may have a chance if Trump is impeached and out of office, but almost certainly not no matter what.
Knowing Trump is imbalanced (and who knows how compromised), give the people what they want and let Trump do the rest. Don’t block anything, don’t vote against anything, don’t deny anything. Just clear the road, and let Trump do the rest.
Now, for the offramp. Park three nuclear-weapon equipped submarines off the coast of Tel Aviv. Tell Netanyahu to stand down, else they launch and turn Israel into glass. Tell Tehran that this is what will happen, but they are free to keep firing until they see that Israel has stood down.
If Isreal doesn’t stand down, fire. If Israel launches a ballistic missile that is capable of carrying a nuclear payload, fire – everything, the entire payload.
I hate this answer. But I see no other offramp. I see no reason that Iran will stop, as they know that they will be destroyed unless they bring an end to the madness of Israel and the United States.
This war is certainly the endgame for the state of Israel. They know that their time is running out. If the United States just walks away from the conflict, Israel will fire nukes. If the United States stays in but the conflict drags on, Israel will fire nukes. Either way, I think Israel fires nukes. Once they do that, Iran will quickly develop the capability to turn their enriched uranium into a projectile (hat-tip Ted Postel), then boom.
After this, who knows what happens. As I mentioned in my last post, we may be getting our Armageddon and rapture, but the Christians that will be raptured won’t be the Scofield-reference-bible-believing kind.
Or, maybe, the sadistic murderers will suddenly become rational. I guess that could happen. I would be thrilled to be wrong.
That’s a bit cynical. Not to call it wrong. As much as I understand the “if I’m losing an existential fight, fire ze missiles!” argument, I still think these leaders know the fallout from using the nukes. Losing an existential fight really boils down to not entering one.
ReplyDeleteWhat if Trumps long “negotiations” with Iranian diplomats were all about choreographing Kayfabe. Political theater. The change is real. The outcomes were decided before the war. Perhaps.
Patrick Szar
Yes, a bit cynical, perhaps. But after one betrayal after another of MAGA in 13 months, perhaps the cynical among us could be given some slack.
DeleteI will take an alternative view: MAGA wanted out of the Middle East, the US out of global institutions, a reduction of the empire's footprint, etc. Trump is accomplishing much of this and his continuing actions will accomplish more of these. I (and we) may not like the means, but what if these means are the only way possible to accomplish these?
Yet, even here, how to get the Zionist monkey off his back and the back of the US? Go back to what I wrote above. What if the only way to do this is to bomb Iran?
That may be just it. I have heard these theories bandied about and found it compelling. “Israel is a spent weapon”, or something to that effect. I am just unwilling to be taken in by the idea that anyone will actually start a nuclear war. (re:hopeful)
DeleteSure, you could “win” the war by literally destroying your enemy completely. But there is no way you don’t become a pariah afterwards, if you don’t get nuked in return. I digress.
Yes, it is totally possible Trump is setting Israel up to fail. Possible. But I’m not convinced of this.
I would not choose to use nukes, even in response to nukes. They don't just kill the enemy but all enemy's subjects as well. The means and the ends are the same, or are at least defined by the same morality. You cannot commit evil to achieve good.
ReplyDeleteI would not either. Unfortunately neither you nor I will get to make that call. I am not writing about what I would do, but taking a stab at what characters on the world stage would do.
DeleteMy point about the nuclear subs off Tel Aviv is simple: I don't see an offramp.
Sorry BM, I should have known you weren't actually suggesting something like that. It does look like check mate for peaceful people in this world, though.
DeleteI didn't write it out very clearly in the first place, so...
DeleteNone of this is going to happen, but to me, the wisest course of action is to cut off all money to Israel and every other country in the Middle East. Maybe give them an ultimatum first. Everyone, end all attacks of any kind or we will cut off funding to Israel and everyone else in the Middle East, and the US pulls out all troops.
ReplyDeleteBut with no funding the Arab countries wouldn't be going along and with no US bases their would be no Americans in harms way. Israel would have to play nice and if they did use nukes then that is on them and they suffer whatever consequences Iran can make them feel.
The power balance is out of whack because of US involvement. Take that out and a true equilibrium could be achieved.
I agree, it is the wisest course of action. As I concluded in my post, this entire episode ends with Israel firing nukes - and I think this also happens if the US gets totally out.
DeleteWhether that's in a few weeks or a few years, I think that the only way this ends is Israel firing nukes.
And you are right, whatever happens after that - and it will be more than consequences from Iran - will happen.