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I have previously considered this DOGE – department of government efficiency – to be led by Elon and Vivek. My conclusion:
Even if Trump [because I am still not sure he will be inaugurated] and Musk get in, nothing like this will happen. Can you even comprehend the weight of those who suck on the government teat? Everyone who is anyone will fight against every action to reduce the spending. Banks, the military-industrial-complex, heck, even Trump’s best supporters will fight this (“keep your government hands off of my Medicare”).
At most, Musk and his buddies will make some aspects of government more efficient – Blackwater will fix the DOD, Palantir will fix the CIA and FBI, etc. You get the idea.
I want none of that.
I have thought about one way it could work, but first a slight detour for a clue, from several days ago when the eleventh million government shutdown was threatening civilization:
With a Friday deadline to fund the government looming and Republican lawmakers at loggerheads over House Speaker Mike Johnson’s proposed stopgap spending bill, the conservative House Freedom Caucus is touting a plan to slash federal spending that conveniently leaves the bloated Pentagon budget untouched.
This is the one way DOGE might stand a chance to be implemented. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist (none at NASA, plenty at SpaceX) to know that the spending trajectory for the United States is unsustainable. Now, I am not saying next year or in ten years. But, thinking long term, it just isn’t. Tack on the exponential growth of Social Security and Medicare…you get the idea.
DOGE can work if the DOD and the spook agencies want it to work. And they will want it to work if they want to continue their fun and games; others in government will want it to work because the only thing backing the US Dollar is aircraft carriers and the stationary carrier in the Middle East.
Now, all government agencies have this desire for continued survival. But Joe Biden, for all the incoherent things he said over the last four years, got one thing right – and I will paraphrase greatly: who has the F-15s?
It isn’t the Department of Agriculture or the Department of the Interior or the Department of Education. It sure isn’t grandma and grandpa waiting for a return on all the money they put into the system for forty years.
If the DOD and spook agencies see that the only way they continue over the next fifty years is for all other aspects of government spending to be drastically reduced, well, that’s just what will happen.
Conclusion
Now, I am not sure such rationality exists in any department of this $7 trillion monstrosity. But not everyone in the military and spook hierarchy is stupid.
And they have all the meaningful guns.
I think we are seeing this kind of picture coming into focus with all the different Trump cabinet nominations. They look like lions on foreign policy and lambs on domestic policy. The foreign policy nominations show a pivot away from Russia-Ukraine but over to China. I don't think Israel policy will change much. Hopefully Trump will be a little less involved in the Middle East based on statements about Syria. But I don't see him taking Netanyahu to task for what they are doing in Gaza or the West Bank.
ReplyDeleteFrankly, anything Trump can do is merely a first step. The only question is will it be a half step or full step in reversing course and then what comes after this next administration. Let's stop mass immigration, quit taxing Bitcoin, reduce government spending a tad, open up the American energy sector, and trash anything related to DEI/ESG. That would at least be a start.
https://thecrosssectionrmb.blogspot.com/
RMB, to your last point: if an one thing - for example, through RFK at HHS or Tulsi with the spook agencies or a true end to the war in Ukraine - moves one inch to the better, I will say it was a better job than any other president has done in over a hundred years.
DeleteCharles Hugh Smith has an interesting take on this.
ReplyDeletehttps://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2024/12/what-if-solutions-that-worked-in-past.html
"No politician ever wins re-election by reducing the federal budget. This is an abstraction we claim to care about but in the real world, we care more about decaying bridges where we live, the cost of medications, whether jobs or plentiful or scarce, etc., and so politicians win re-election by sluicing federal funding to repairing the bridge, reducing the cost of medications and funding the defense plant making weapons the Pentagon didn't want but Congress loved because "defense spending" is viewed politically as a jobs program."
"This process cannot be repealed. Congress controls the government's purse strings, and when re-election comes around then slashing $2 trillion in federal spending will mean defeat and a loss of power. Not many politicians will fall on their sword, and for those who do, to what purpose? Whomever replaces the politician will pursue the same "guns and butter" free-spending budgets that the new leadership vowed to slash and burn."
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As much as I would love to see DOGE succeed wildly, I understand it ain't gonna happen. Ain't gonna come close. The one condition which is critical for success here has not changed--the desire in human nature to get something for nothing. This has been true since Adam and Eve ate the apple and, unfortunately, people and societies which act in like manner will not repent nor change willingly. They must be broken and driven out.
Human beings may use inductive reasoning to solve problems, but they are not rational. They are far more concerned about their current "well-being" than they are about the consequences which arise in the future. Everyone knows that, if the present course is not turned away from, the system will collapse causing extreme and immense pain, but nobody wants to be the first to turn aside into a different path. Immediate pain (loss of Medicare, salary, position, office, etc.) speaks far more loudly than some nebulous far-off benefit.
Hezekiah, a "good" king of Israel, experienced this. When warned of the consequences of his actions, he merely shrugged his shoulders and said, "At least it won't happen in my lifetime." In essence, let my grandchildren worry about it. And, they did, in spades.
As a society and nation, America's goose is cooked. To expect a Ninevah-like change of heart is unrealistic. For us, as individual Americans, there is only one solution: "Trust in the Lord with all your heart and do not lean on your own understanding."
We mouth pretty platitudes and pull levers for those who promise us the world on a platter, but when it comes down to making the hard choices and following through, we shrink back.
Beggar thy neighbor before he beggars you. This is the ONE great commandment of human flesh.
Roger,
DeleteMany people close to me feel very positive about this incoming administration. I have given them my two cents, and have decided to leave it at this.
As I noted in my earlier post on DOGE, I dont think any of it is going to work - partly as CHS has written: too many constituencies wanting more "free" stuff.
My purpose here was just to note the one way it might possibly work - if the military wants it to work, to save its longer term future.
With all this said, I think we are likely to get the worst of all worlds - in the worst ways (military, spying, surveillance, personal privacy, etc.), government WILL get more efficient. In other words, a technologically advanced AI state.
Martin Armstrong at armstrongeconomics.com developed an AI in the late 80s to track world capital flows & make predictions of future activity based on this. He also developed his own theory of economics based on measures of public confidence.
ReplyDeleteHe shared a question a client asked Socrates, his AI:
Q. When will the National Debt hit $100trillion?
A. By 2028.
So a hell of a lot of this is going to become academic much sooner than most expect.
BTW, the EU crashes first.