Waking Up To the Cost

When the corona first hit, John Mauldin could be counted in the over-the-top-panicked camp.  No price was too high for Mauldin: lives, businesses, and jobs destroyed – even that of his own daughter; it was all necessary and worth it.  Now, after close to three months, he is finally waking up to the cost (of course, not that this results in any remorse): COVID-19: A Data-Driven Analysis.

I will take the data he presents as is, as it is damning enough; in no way do I mean to imply that I buy all the numbers.

He begins by looking at the direct effects of corona (emphasis in original):

The direct effects come from both the virus itself and—critically important—from people avoiding healthcare because they fear exposure to the virus at a healthcare facility. Studies are beginning to show the latter group may be larger than the former.

We knew this before the hysteria (or, at least, within the first week or two of panic-induced irrationality).  Well, many of us did.  Not Mauldin.

Then there are secondary health effects related to our response to the virus. These secondary effects are largely due to the economic consequences. We are seeing both “deaths of despair” and health consequences due to changes in the healthcare system, such as closure of some rural hospitals and the rise of telemedicine.

We knew this before the hysteria (or, at least, within the first week or two of panic-induced irrationality).  Well, many of us did.  Not Mauldin.

Another thing we don’t fully understand is regional variation. The virus obviously strikes some areas harder than others.

We knew this before the hysteria (or, at least, within the first week or two of panic-induced irrationality).  Well, many of us did.  Not Mauldin.

For example, total COVID-19 deaths as of May 28 in Texas, Florida, and California combined were 7,877. Those states have 27% of the US population but so far less than 8% of the COVID-19 deaths.

We knew this before the hysteria (or, at least, within the first week or two of panic-induced irrationality).  Well, many of us did.  Not Mauldin.

Contrast that with New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey where deaths as a percent of population were much higher. … New York City, with 2.5% of the US population, had 29.2% of the country’s excess deaths.

We knew this before the hysteria (or, at least, within the first week or two of panic-induced irrationality).  Well, many of us did.  Not Mauldin.

The good news? If you are not in New York, New Jersey, or Connecticut, and are under 50 and healthy, your odds of dying from COVID-19 are low, in the range of a car accident.

We knew this before the hysteria (or, at least, within the first week or two of panic-induced irrationality).  Well, many of us did.  Not Mauldin.

Using data from Ohio (Mauldin is co-writing this piece with a doctor from the Cleveland Clinic), he offers:

We are learning some of the factors influencing death from SARS-CoV-2: More than 70% of Ohio deaths have been residents in long-term care facilities.

We knew this before the hysteria (or, at least, within the first week or two of panic-induced irrationality).  Well, many of us did.  Not Mauldin.

So outside of those in confined spaces, the risk of dying from COVID-19 for the rest of the Ohio population was approximately 51 deaths per million people.

We knew this before the hysteria (or, at least, within the first week or two of panic-induced irrationality).  Well, many of us did.  Not Mauldin.

Ok.  These are only the primary consequences.  What more is there?

…anecdotally, we are seeing an increase in suicides, opioid use, an increase in alcohol-related deaths (alcohol tax revenue has increased over 25% in places, and cigarette tax revenue up over 10%). Methamphetamine use has jumped as well. …In addition, many cancer patients are avoiding diagnostic testing and even chemotherapy visits.

We knew this before the hysteria (or, at least, within the first week or two of panic-induced irrationality).  Well, many of us did.  Not Mauldin.

Citing a Hoover Institution report (forgive the length):

“Lives also are lost due to delayed or foregone health care imposed by the shutdown and the fear it creates among patients. …Emergency stroke evaluations are down 40 percent. Of the 650,000 cancer patients receiving chemotherapy in the United States, an estimated half are missing their treatments. Of the 150,000 new cancer cases typically discovered each month in the US, most—as elsewhere in the world—are not being diagnosed, and two-thirds to three-fourths of routine cancer screenings are not happening because of shutdown policies and fear among the population. Nearly 85 percent fewer living-donor transplants are occurring now, compared to the same period last year.”

We knew this before the hysteria (or, at least, within the first week or two of panic-induced irrationality).  Well, many of us did.  Not Mauldin.

Further, citing the Washington Post:

By mid-May, almost 94 million adults had delayed medical care because of the coronavirus pandemic, the Census Bureau reported in its Household Pulse Survey. Some 66 million of those needed but didn’t get medical care unrelated to the virus.

We knew this before the hysteria (or, at least, within the first week or two of panic-induced irrationality).  Well, many of us did.  Not Mauldin.

He offers a couple of worthwhile graphs: hospital visits are down 33% to 50% and more in virtually all parts of the country; personal healthcare spending has fallen 40% in two months, down by $1 trillion (annualized); “1.4 million healthcare jobs disappeared in April.”  Read that last one again.

Decreased access to medical care could occur as workers lose employer-sponsored health coverage due to layoffs (nearly 27 million according to one study) and by rural hospitals going out of business.

We knew this before the hysteria (or, at least, within the first week or two of panic-induced irrationality).  Well, many of us did.  Not Mauldin.

The director of the World Food Program says the number of people facing hunger has doubled to 265 million because of COVID-19.

No.  Because of the nonsensical reaction to COVID-19.  But we knew this before the hysteria (or, at least, within the first week or two of panic-induced irrationality).  Well, many of us did.  Not Mauldin.

Conclusion

There is good new – really good news – at the end of this report:

The most discouraging statistic for preventing the virus from killing Americans came from a new AP-NORC poll that found only about half of Americans say they would get a COVID-19 vaccine if one is developed.

Well, of course Mauldin would be discouraged by good news.  Somehow, we knew this.