The Third American Civil War

 

A civil war is a war between organized groups within the same state (or country). The aim of one side may be to take control of the country or a region, to achieve independence for a region, or to change government policies

James Fearon, a scholar of civil wars at Stanford University, defines a civil war as "a violent conflict within a country fought by organized groups that aim to take power at the center or in a region, or to change government policies".

If you prefer, you can call it the Third American Revolution:

In political science, a revolution (Latin: revolutio, 'a turn around') is a rapid, fundamental transformation of a society's class, state, ethnic or religious structures.

Really, what is happening right now is both: a war between conflicting organized groups, and a war to rapidly transform society’s state structures.  It is not yet meaningfully violent, although violence has been employed, until now exclusively by the entrenched side.

Whatever you call it, we are at war.  We know 1776.  We know 1861.  It is clear now that we are in the middle of a third one.  Just as in the first several years of the earlier two, it is too early to tell which side will win. 

The first real trigger was likely the regime’s reaction to the 2008 financial crisis.  By far, popular support was against any bailout of financial institutions – let the chips fall where they may.  I still remember the time TARP first came up for a vote: from memory, something like 90% plus of contacts from the public to congress expressed the desire to vote no – which happened the first time the vote came up.

Maria Bartiromo, on CNBC at the time, scream into the camera, “COME ON, PEOPLE!”  apparently, you have to be dumb to not want to give billionaires more billions.  Well, congress kept voting until they got it “right.”  The Tea Party was born from this and from Ron Paul’s run for president that same year.  Both the Tea Party and Ron Paul’s run were hijacked.

Then came the Obama years – relatively quiet domestically, but clearly steps were put in place to transform America even further to the left.  However, anytime someone spoke up about it, they were labeled racist, etc. 

So, instead of speaking, they voted in Trump.  Out of twenty or so republican candidates for president in 2016, he survived.  He survived because he was the only one who fundamentally spoke against the regime and for the people (Rand Paul a little, but he couldn’t match Trump’s personality).

The deplorables voted Trump into office.  While he spoke in revolutionary terms, he was nowhere near prepared enough to act on his words.  We all remember; we kept asking ourselves: is he playing four-D chess?  What’s going on?  When will he turn over the winning card?  It never happened.

In fact, he gave us Operation Warp Speed.

Meanwhile, the other side planned and schemed.  Biden was voted in, the most popular president ever.  More votes than ever.  Magical midnight reversals, truckloads of ballots, etc.  Thousands went to prison because they thought something was fishy about the outcome and they wanted to make their concerns known.

----------------------------------------

Trump won the election in 2024.  Admit it, you thought that this would never happen.  I thought it would never happen.  They tried suing him, convicting him, putting him in prison, killing him.  None of it worked.  The opponents didn’t even try to steal the election – or, if they did, they were unable to do so.

----------------------------------------

Something was different this time.  There was little talk coming out of the Trump team between election night and his inauguration.  Sure, we heard the words: DOGE, end the wars (but not the slaughter in Gaza), nominees including RFK, Jr., Gabbard, Hegseth, Patel.  No, not saints, but a sea change from what I have seen in my lifetime.

Since inauguration?  Every day, actions are announced and changes made – almost every one of which is far better for the country than anything any president has done since…what, Andrew Jackson and shutting down the bank?

----------------------------------------

USAID.  If there is one sign that Trump is serious about taking on the Deep State and the malevolent oligarchs, what is being done here is it.  Yes, it may survive in the State Department.  But even this is more oversight and control than the current practice. 

More so, all the talk – a ball of worms, corruption, etc.  Details will come out and be made public – the mainstream news cannot afford to ignore it, and the alternative news is all over it, and with a larger audience.

What’s next?  The National Endowment for Democracy?  The Epstein client list?  That would be another gesture of goodwill by Trump and team.

----------------------------------------

There is no doubt Susie Wiles is an effective chief of staff – keeping all of the cats herded in this revolution, let alone managing Trump, is an impossible task, yet she is doing it.  No leaks, effective planning and coordination.  You have to give it to her, whether you agree with the actions or not.

And the execution?  It is Musk.  Call him the executioner.  I don’t know what else to call him. 

Even Rubio is sounding like an actual diplomat, not a warmonger.  This may be more stunning than if RFK, Jr., and Gabbard achieve confirmation (which may be announced one way or another by the time this blog is published).

----------------------------------------

Conclusion

From an interview of Angelo Codevilla, eight years ago at the beginning of Trump’s first term:

Hear me…you see the entire ruling class essentially rejecting the Constitution, the American way, rejecting the legitimacy of elections.  There can be no mild response to that, and there isn’t one.  Trump’s voters want certain results and they don’t particularly care how they get them.  The ruling class wants its power and doesn’t particularly care how it holds on to it. (Emphasis added)

Trump is doing all of this like a dictator.  The dictator tables have been turned on the deep state, the oligarchy, the swamp, the ruling class…and they don’t like it.  Again, it is war.  Trump’s voters want results, and they don’t care, at this point, how they get them.  They have seen the teeth of the other side; they have seen the lack of rules.  If you want to play dirty, well, they say, let’s play.  Kindness got them nowhere.

I don’t know how this war will end.  The Deep State will not go away quietly.  Yet, I still believe the direction will be told by which way the DOD wind blows.  They have the most guns of any government agency, and if they want to keep receiving their toys, they will have to support drastic reductions in other areas of government.

One thing is certain: we are living in exciting times.  The next few years will tell the tale: will the monstrosity known as the United States Empire go down in a semi-rational and semi-peaceful way, or will it go down in violence?  In other words, will this civil war / revolution end with a whimper or end with a bang?

We have long known that these are the only two options.  The difference today?  The game is clearly afoot.  If Trump fails (or is insincere, which I don’t believe to be the case), semi-rational and semi-peaceful won’t get a second chance.

Epilogue

And then there is this, which is one reason to bet on nothing improving, in fact things getting worse:

·         President Donald Trump said the United States “will take over the Gaza Strip,” and “we’ll own it.”

·         Trump said that all Palestinians currently living in Gaza, around 2 million people, should leave the territory and be placed in other countries in the Middle East, among them Jordan and Egypt.

·         “Gaza is a hellhole,” Trump said at the White House during a joint news conference with Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

If you think twenty years and $2 trillion (or whatever) in Afghanistan was over the top, you ain’t seen nothing yet.  If Trump truly intends to carry this out, Biden will be seen as benevolent toward the Palestinians compared to Trump.

What is clear from this announcement: Netanyahu knows he is trapped and Israel has failed in its objectives.  He knows that the blowback will be fierce, and there is nothing other than the Samson Option with which Israel can fight back.  Or, handing the problem over to the United States.

We have been concerned about US fighting a war against Iran on behalf of Israel.  But it turns out Trump wants to fight in Gaza on behalf of Israel.

I may come back to this topic in the next week or two.  I want to see how some of this plays out.