Ukraine, Greece, and the Euro

Bear with me as I wander through speculation….

Alan Greenspan has been a very good commentator on all things economic in the period both before and after he became Fed Chairman; unfortunately for all of us, this wasn’t true during the time he actually was Fed Chairman (but if not him, it would have been someone just like him, so…).

He has recently come out with some statements about Greece and the Euro:

The former head of the US central bank, Alan Greenspan, has predicted that Greece will have to leave the eurozone.

Greece wants to re-negotiate its bailout, but Mr Greenspan said "I don't think it will be resolved without Greece leaving the eurozone".

Mr Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, said: "I believe [Greece] will eventually leave. I don't think it helps them or the rest of the eurozone - it is just a matter of time before everyone recognises that parting is the best strategy.”

I agree with Alan.

Greenspan sees one way out:

"The problem is that there is no way that I can conceive of the euro of continuing, unless and until all of the members of eurozone become politically integrated - actually even just fiscally integrated won't do it."

I agree here also.  But the people are not very much in favor of this.  political and fiscal consolidation isn’t going to happen in the current environment.  Even fiscal / financial calamity has not softened the mood of the dozens of tribes on the continent.

But a 100 year European project is not dropped so easily.  This got me to thinking – what would get the people of Europe to be in favor of this?  What would cause masses of a political body to act in a manner that – prior to the event – seemed highly unlikely, if not impossible?  What has done this in the past?

Create a climate of fear, create an enemy, create war.  This strategy has been trotted out and successfully implemented more times than I can count.  Does a list need to be created?  I am certain not for my regular audience.

Enter Ukraine.  A war in central Europe has served useful purposes toward centralization and state control many times in the last 100 years.  A serious conflict centered in and around Ukraine could very well unite the masses of Europe together.

Start a war; create fear.  A dangerous game for the elite, but not one that they haven’t played before.  Further global centralization is the objective; Europe is a lynchpin in this desire – and the forces of centralization have been working on the European project for a century.

They won’t let it go lightly.