Saturday, August 13, 2016

The Next Color Revolution?

What was once a relatively straightforward internal political matter may now be used to foment the next color revolution on the borders of Russia:

The 31 armed men who took over a police station in Armenia’s capital of Yerevan on July 17 made two demands that got widespread news coverage.

The two demands?  First, that the government releases Jirair Sefilian, held on charges of plotting a coup.  The second, that Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan resign.  The government gave in to neither demand, and after a couple of weeks of being deprived of food, water and internet, the occupiers gave up.

This, it seems, isn’t the end of the story.  Apparently, after giving up, the now-arrested men (or others speaking / writing in their name) claim that their true mission is to free Armenia from under the yoke of “Russian colonialism.”  Consistent with a planned coup and demanding the president’s resignation; yet whether or not this was the sentiment behind storming the police station in the first place, it is the message now being delivered.

It is claimed, at least in this Huffington Post piece, that many Armenians do not like the president’s turn away from the EU and toward Russia.  Ignoring the geographic, political, and linguistic reality (while Armenians have their own language, Russian continues to be taught and spoken) of Armenia (even more so than in Ukraine or Georgia), the EU and the west might be a good option for the country.  But that is ignoring a lot.

In any case, such sentiments have turned into massive bloodshed throughout North Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe.

It might be Armenia’s turn soon.


  1. """that many Armenians do not like the president’s turn away from the EU and toward Russia."""

    Russia supports Armenia in their hot/cold war with Azerbaijan. It also provides airforce support against any attack by Turkey which does not have good relations with Armenia.

    What is the EU going to provide which will replace that support?

    1. The short answer? Nothing.

      I am not sure I would say Russia supports Armenia vis Azerbaijan. It seems to me Russia has a strong interest that these two countries do not fall into chaos and hot war. This doesn't matter to Europe, and I suspect the US would like to see the opposite.

      As to Turkey, it is Russian troops that man the Turkish border of Armenia. There may also be a Russian air base in Armenia, I am not sure.

  2. Around 2008 there was a dustup between Armenia and Azerbaijan. At the time the Russians had a motor rifle division stationed there and a wing of fighters. Whether these forces are still deploy in Armemia I don't know but I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians are still there. They do have a vested interest in preventing a war between the two. Just for the record Azerbaijan is mostly Shi'ite. That is good for the Russians has it cuts down on the mischief that Soros and company can engage in.