Recent events in Armenia afford me the opportunity to
integrate a couple of topics of interest: geopolitics and the value of common
culture.
The 2018 Armenian
revolution were a series of anti-government protests in Armenia from April
to May 2018 staged by various political and civil groups led by member of
parliament Nikol Pashinyan (head of the Civil Contract party). Protests and
marches took place initially in response to Serzh Sargsyan's third consecutive
term as the most powerful figure in the government of the Armenia and later
against the Republican Party-controlled government in general. Pashinyan
declared it a Velvet Revolution.
Not to be confused with an earlier Velvet Revolution, that
of the former
Czechoslovakia and the end of one party communist rule in 1989.
The Armenian constitution was amended in 2015. Whereas the position of president was
previously the most powerful political position, under the new constitution this
power would be concentrated in the prime minister. Convenient for Sargsyan, who was to be
term-limited out of the office of president after ten years in power. He vowed that he would not take the position
of prime minister, but did anyway.
Hence, the protests.
Geopolitics
The entire situation can be compared and contrasted with
events in Ukraine.
Euromaidan was a wave of
demonstrations and civil unrest in Ukraine, which began on the night of 21
November 2013 with public protests in Maidan Nezalezhnosti ("Independence
Square") in Kiev. The protests were sparked by the Ukrainian government's
decision to suspend the signing of an association agreement with the European
Union, instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union.
What are the similarities?
Both Armenia and Ukraine are former Soviet Republics; both lie along the
periphery of Mackinder’s world island; both lie in regions valuable for the
west to disrupt if troubling Russia is of benefit.
What are the differences?
Well, the demonstrations in Ukraine have led to war, unrest, a dividing
of the country. The demonstrations in
Armenia have led (so far) only to a peaceful transition in the government.
Unlike Ukraine, it is not clear that the demonstrations in
Armenia were instigated or accelerated by external actors; unlike with Ukraine,
those who so forcefully speak against the expansion of the empire (e.g. The
Saker, Stephen F. Cohen, Paul Craig Roberts) have not discussed the transition
in Armenia at all (to my knowledge) – or at least not at all in comparable
terms.
So, maybe the west was not involved, or maybe Armenia is not
seen as posing the same risk of instability along Russia’s frontier. I will leave to others to examine the first
possibility; I will focus on the second.
I will do this by also comparing the situation in Armenia with that of
Ukraine.
Common Culture
Ukraine is a country of multiple languages, religions and
traditions; the borders have been very malleable even in recent history. To highlight (and I will greatly simplify):
What is Ukraine today includes (as recently as one hundred
years ago): Poland, Austro-Hungary, Russia.
This divide can most easily be seen in the conflict today: the western
portion of Ukraine looks to the west; the eastern portion looks to Russia.
According
to the latest census (2001), 77.8% of the total population is Ukrainian.
Russians form 17.3%, mainly in eastern Ukraine. Belarussians, Moldovans, Crimean
Tatars, Bulgarians, Hungarians, Romanians, Poles, and Jews each account for
less than 1% of the population. About 700,000 Rusyns (Ruthenians) live within
the country, but they are not an officially recognized ethnic group.
Of course, given the relatively recent border changes, I
suspect even the 77.8% Ukrainian can be further segmented.
Ukrainian is the official language
and is spoken by about 67% of the population. Russian is spoken by about 24% of
the population. Other languages include Romanian, Polish, and Hungarian.
Religions:
Ukrainian Orthodox - Kyiv Patriarchate 19%, Orthodox (no particular
jurisdiction) 16%, Ukrainian Orthodox - Moscow Patriarchate 9%, Ukrainian Greek
Catholic 6%, Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox 1.7%, Protestant, Jewish, none
38% (2004 est.)
My point? To call
someone Ukrainian does not do justice to the different religions, languages,
and traditions to be found in the country.
Language: Armenian 97.7%, Kurdish
1%, Russian 0.9%, and other 0.4% (2001 census).
Armenian is the only official language.
Religion: According to the Census
of 2011 the religion in Armenia is the following: Christianity 2,862,366
(94.8%) of whom 2,797,187 Armenian Apostolic (92.5%)….
Ethnic groups: 98.1% Armenian.
The first historical reference to Armenians is 2500 years old,
and people who considered themselves Armenian have lived in the region
continuously since at least that time. Armenia
became the first country to adopt Christianity, in 301 A.D.
Conclusion
Whatever the geopolitical background of the demonstrations
and change in government in Armenia, things seemed to have settled down
quickly. While there are still risks, the
events transpired with no bloodshed, no police crackdowns, no snipers of
unknown origins on the rooftops, and no visits by US senators or state
department personnel announcing “we are with you” while handing out cookies.
Most importantly, no civil war or war of secession.
Perhaps the reason for the difference in outcome vs. that of
Ukraine has something to do with the common culture and long-lasting traditions
of the Armenian people. An interesting statement
when one considers the issue of nationality and borders. Armenia’s borders work to unite and defend;
Ukraine’s borders work to divide and weaken.
Maybe borders work best when they are formed by people with a
common culture and tradition.
Perhaps it is time for decentralization in Ukraine.
As you point out Armenia is 90 % Christian Orthodox so there's scant opportunity for US agitprpopers to stir up trouble between Armenia and Russia.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure if political history can be said to gradually proceed from one level of centralization to another. Rather I think there are very decisive moments of transformation. One need only think of the French Revolution - where monarchy and Christianity suddenly gave way to secular bourgeois rule. As well the economic corporation can be viewed as a development emerging already out of the first European monarchies constituting a transformation of political rule into autonomous economic organization. Today's corporations are essentially border-less and stateless. In fact, borders, governments, states, and political control are a huge bother for them.
All the pieces are in place for the organization and administration of the corporation to completely replace that of all political power centers. The freesociety.com organization is in fact a corporation proposing to simply buy sovereignty for itself - to become the first autonomous independent and free corporation. I think this is the dimension along which libertarianism will emerge and displace political power. It will be by way of an unexpectedly rapid and unforeseen transformation rather than a slow and continuous political reform tending toward decentralization.
Armenian and Russian Orthodox are of different communions; to the extent that this makes them friendly or not, i cannot say. I know Russia is most friendly with other Slavs - of which Armenians do not number.
DeleteThe 90% plus Orthodox (along with language, etc.) indicate to me that splitting the Armenian population as was done in Ukraine - will be difficult.
The Armenian Apostolic Church makes up part of the Oriental Orthodox communion, whereas the Russian Orthodox Church is Eastern Orthodox. I understand there's longstanding bitterness between the two communions.
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